April Buzz Index Updated… Again

I’m doing some different things with the Buzz Index this month. One of them just makes better sense, while the other is being done to make the numbers a little more immediately relevant and interesting.

First, it always kinda bugged me that I was pulling the Compete numbers on a time frame that was different from when I pulled the Facebook and Twitter numbers. For example, for last month’s Index, I pulled the March Compete numbers on April 16 — representing unique visitors for the month of March — but the FB and Twitter numbers represented those games’ respective followers on the 16th of April. So I had a mix of April and March numbers, which seemed awkward.

Going forward, I’m grabbing the FB and Twitter numbers on the last day of the month that I’ll be tracking with Compete in the middle of next month. So, the numbers you see now are April Compete numbers combined with games’ FB/Twitter numbers from April 30. It just seems to make more sense that way.

One side effect, for this month, at least, is that the FB/Twitter numbers you see are only about two weeks “newer” than last month’s, which means less overall change. The next set of numbers will have a full month’s time to mature.

Also, I’ve decided to scrap the “rolling average” method I used to do for computing Compete visitors and just go with the last month’s numbers. Going back to when I first started tracking this stuff, about two years ago, all I had was Compete and I wanted to find some way to “smooth out” the many peaks and valleys on a typical Compete chart.

However, once I added Facebook and Twitter to the mix — both of which tend to be very stable metrics — the overall results seemed a little too stable. If a game moved more than two spots, it was considered an extreme shift. Also, since the Buzz Index is supposed to represent what’s hot “this month,” using a monthly metric, as opposed to one that relies on the last three months, seems to make better sense. Now that I’m using the last month’s Compete numbers, you should see a little more variety in the month-to-month numbers.

OK, enough with the boring stuff. Some observations from this month:

  • What the Dofus? I have no idea.
  • In case you’re wondering how I break ties — like the one at the top of the chart — I go with whatever game “wins” two of the three categories.
  • Yes, TERA is up 13 places from last month. That’s not entirely due to my new math — it also has quite a bit to do with the fact that there was a new TERA official site (tera.enmasse.com), which replaced the old one I was tracking (www.tera-online.com) a couple months ago. Both take you to the same page, but one has much better traffic than the other, and I’ve adjusted my tracking accordingly. Even using my old method, taking the new site into account would have pushed TERA up 10 spots.
  • Firefall‘s also getting some love. Now that TERA‘s launched, it’s #3 in unreleased games, behind only Guild Wars 2 and The Secret World.
  • Hey, APB: Reloaded only lost 25,000 Facebook Likes this time around…
  • Finally, there’s The Elder Scrolls Online — which was announced on May 3, after my cutoff date for pulling numbers, which is why you don’t see it above. In its first 24 hours, it had about 4,500 each Facebook and Twitter followers. As of this writing, it has 19,697 on Facebook and 26,454 on Twitter. That would put it at #54 on Facebook and #9(!) on Twitter. Let’s assume it manages 100,000 on Compete. That would put it at #17, and the composite of those three numbers would place it at #23 on the Buzz Index. Not bad for something that had 0, 0, and 0 hits a month ago.
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5 Responses to April Buzz Index Updated… Again

  1. dndhatcher says:

    FYI: Dofus is an enchanting MMO set in a colorful world. Adventure on the back of your Dragoturkey mount through forests, islands and lively cities filled with wacky people, dangerous dungeons and adorable pets. Find the precious Dofus, dragon eggs with immense power. Everyone plays Dofus. (Thats a paraphrase of the “what is Dofus?” link on the Dofus website. Sounds alot like Pandaria, doesnt it?)

    Dofus just released an App called Dofus Battles 2, which probably accounts for any sudden activity.

    GW2 had a couple betas and flooded twitter with “I am the 95%” messages.

    • jasonwinter says:

      I can’t believe that just releasing an app accounts for a 350% increase in FB likes.

      As for GW2, remember that my #s were pulled on April 30, right after the BWE but before this last stress test with the “95%” stuff. They’ve been rising steadily since first announcing betas in February.

      On a side note, I mentioned to someone at GBTV that I’d hoped to get a DCUO interview with SOE, because they have so many FB Likes. He said that was probably people who Liked it when it first came out and since left. I pointed out that since December, they’d gone up from about 310,000 to 400,000 — that’s pretty impressive for a game a lot of people think is a failure. Just that gain of 90,000 alone over the past four months would place it higher than the TOTAL Likes for DDO, TERA, City of Heroes and other “more successful” games….

      …or about equal to the 88,698 additional Likes that SWTOR picked up in TWO WEEKS. Yep, that game’s dying.

      • dndhatcher says:

        What I read indicated Dofus sold 300K copies of the app. Maybe it was released as a big FB promotion? I dont really know, its not a game I keep track of.

        SWTOR is going to needs 100K new likes every 2 weeks if they loose 400K subs every 2 months. I’m sure its going to be around a while, but since it failed to steal a million WoW subs there arent enough other gamers to keep it growing. I bet the “no friends on my server” problem is a significant factor in sub retention.

  2. dndhatcher says:

    I also find it of interest that 8 of the 50 games (Star Trek Online, Champions Online, Forsaken World, Jade Dynasty, Battle of the Immortals, Neverwinter, Rusty Hearts and Perfectworld) are all Perfectworld’s games. Thats alot under one distributor that started as a single F2P game. Also they dont seem to have any significant social media marketing (nothing on twitter or facebook).

  3. Pingback: May Buzz Index Updated | Wintry Mix

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