I’m doing some different things with the Buzz Index this month. One of them just makes better sense, while the other is being done to make the numbers a little more immediately relevant and interesting.
First, it always kinda bugged me that I was pulling the Compete numbers on a time frame that was different from when I pulled the Facebook and Twitter numbers. For example, for last month’s Index, I pulled the March Compete numbers on April 16 — representing unique visitors for the month of March — but the FB and Twitter numbers represented those games’ respective followers on the 16th of April. So I had a mix of April and March numbers, which seemed awkward.
Going forward, I’m grabbing the FB and Twitter numbers on the last day of the month that I’ll be tracking with Compete in the middle of next month. So, the numbers you see now are April Compete numbers combined with games’ FB/Twitter numbers from April 30. It just seems to make more sense that way.
One side effect, for this month, at least, is that the FB/Twitter numbers you see are only about two weeks “newer” than last month’s, which means less overall change. The next set of numbers will have a full month’s time to mature.
Also, I’ve decided to scrap the “rolling average” method I used to do for computing Compete visitors and just go with the last month’s numbers. Going back to when I first started tracking this stuff, about two years ago, all I had was Compete and I wanted to find some way to “smooth out” the many peaks and valleys on a typical Compete chart.
However, once I added Facebook and Twitter to the mix — both of which tend to be very stable metrics — the overall results seemed a little too stable. If a game moved more than two spots, it was considered an extreme shift. Also, since the Buzz Index is supposed to represent what’s hot “this month,” using a monthly metric, as opposed to one that relies on the last three months, seems to make better sense. Now that I’m using the last month’s Compete numbers, you should see a little more variety in the month-to-month numbers.
OK, enough with the boring stuff. Some observations from this month:
- What the Dofus? I have no idea.
- In case you’re wondering how I break ties — like the one at the top of the chart — I go with whatever game “wins” two of the three categories.
- Yes, TERA is up 13 places from last month. That’s not entirely due to my new math — it also has quite a bit to do with the fact that there was a new TERA official site (tera.enmasse.com), which replaced the old one I was tracking (www.tera-online.com) a couple months ago. Both take you to the same page, but one has much better traffic than the other, and I’ve adjusted my tracking accordingly. Even using my old method, taking the new site into account would have pushed TERA up 10 spots.
- Firefall‘s also getting some love. Now that TERA‘s launched, it’s #3 in unreleased games, behind only Guild Wars 2 and The Secret World.
- Hey, APB: Reloaded only lost 25,000 Facebook Likes this time around…
- Finally, there’s The Elder Scrolls Online — which was announced on May 3, after my cutoff date for pulling numbers, which is why you don’t see it above. In its first 24 hours, it had about 4,500 each Facebook and Twitter followers. As of this writing, it has 19,697 on Facebook and 26,454 on Twitter. That would put it at #54 on Facebook and #9(!) on Twitter. Let’s assume it manages 100,000 on Compete. That would put it at #17, and the composite of those three numbers would place it at #23 on the Buzz Index. Not bad for something that had 0, 0, and 0 hits a month ago.